Climate Migration: When Home Becomes Uninhabitable
Homes left behind, fields that can no longer cultivable, cities where heat makes even stepping outside dangerous. Across Pakistan, people are being forced to leave places they have lived in for generations, not necessarily because they want a better life elsewhere, but because staying is becoming increasingly impossible.
In Jacobabad, temperatures reach up to 50°C, forcing nearly half the city’s residents to reportedly leave during the hottest months. Along the Indus Delta, rising seas and saltwater intrusion have contributed to more than 1.2 million people leaving the region over two decades.
And if millions are already being displaced, why is climate migration still treated as a problem for the future?
When Leaving Is No Longer a Choice
Climate migration is often discussed as something that will happen decades from now, when temperatures rise further and sea levels become more threatening. But for many Pakistanis, that future has already arrived.
In Jacobabad, one of the hottest cities in the world, summer temperatures can reach 50°C, making everyday life increasingly difficult. Nearly half of its roughly 200,000 residents reportedly leave during the hottest months, seeking relief from extreme temperatures that threaten their health and livelihoods. For labourers who depend on outdoor work, remaining in the city can mean risking their health while struggling to earn an income. Moving elsewhere becomes less of a choice and more of a survival strategy.
The situation in the Indus Delta is different, but no less concerning. Reduced freshwater flows, rising seas and saltwater intrusion have damaged agricultural land and fishing livelihoods. In areas such as Kharo Chan, once-thriving villages have steadily emptied as farmland becomes uncultivable and fishing becomes increasingly difficult. More than 1.2 million people have reportedly been displaced across the wider delta region over the past twenty years.
What makes this particularly concerning is that displacement does not always come with a dramatic disaster. Sometimes, it happens gradually. A farmer loses another harvest. A fishing community loses another source of income. A family leaves for the summer and eventually finds that returning no longer makes economic sense.
And that raises a larger question: when people can no longer afford to stay, where exactly are they expected to go?
The Pressure Doesn't Disappear. It Moves.
For many displaced families, the answer is Pakistan’s already overcrowded cities.
Karachi and Lahore offer the possibility of work, shelter and access to services. But these cities are already struggling with housing shortages, inadequate transport, water supply problems and pressure on healthcare and education. Climate migration adds another layer to problems that urban authorities have yet to resolve.
Karachi alone could receive up to 2.4 million climate migrants by 2050. Yet UN-Habitat has estimated that more than half of the city’s population already lives in informal settlements, where access to basic infrastructure and services is often limited.
For families who have lost their homes and livelihoods, moving to a city does not necessarily mean finding stability. Farmers and fishers who once depended on their land or local ecosystems may find themselves working as daily-wage labourers, without regular incomes, employment protection or long-term security.
Housing presents another challenge. When affordable accommodation is unavailable, families often settle in informal communities, including areas exposed to flooding, extreme heat and inadequate sanitation.
The result is a cycle that is difficult to escape. People leave one climate-vulnerable location, only to find themselves living in another.
And the consequences extend beyond the displaced families themselves. More people competing for limited housing, jobs, water and public services can deepen existing inequalities, particularly when urban growth is not accompanied by adequate investment.
This is what makes climate migration more than a displacement problem. It is also a question of how Pakistan’s cities are being planned, financed and managed.
The Cost of Losing Home
The immediate cost of climate migration is easy to recognise: a destroyed house, a lost crop, or a family forced to relocate. The longer-term consequences are much harder to measure.
For displaced families, rebuilding is not always an option. A farmer whose land has become saline cannot simply return to farming. A household that has lost its income may not have the resources to rebuild, even after the floodwater has receded.
Pakistan’s labour market adds to the problem. According to the Labour Force Survey 2024–25, approximately 80.8% of employed people were in informal employment, where access to social security and employment protections is limited.
Why Are We Still Planning for Disasters, Not Displacement?
Pakistan has spent years responding to floods, heatwaves and other climate-related emergencies. But responding to a disaster and preparing for the movement of people it causes are two different things.
Emergency shelters, food assistance and temporary relief are essential. However, they do not address what happens when a community can no longer return home, or when thousands of displaced families decide to settle permanently in cities that were already struggling to accommodate their existing populations.
Yet that distinction only reinforces the problem: repeated displacement can make recovery increasingly difficult.
Yet that distinction only reinforces the problem: repeated displacement can make recovery increasingly difficult.
What Pakistan needs is not simply a stronger emergency response, but planning that recognises migration as a potential long-term consequence of climate change.
That means identifying communities at risk before displacement happens, investing in heat adaptation and coastal protection, improving affordable housing and ensuring urban development plans account for future population movements.
It also means recognising that preventing forced migration can be just as important as preparing to accommodate it. Protecting agricultural livelihoods, restoring coastal ecosystems and improving local water security could help communities remain where they are, when doing so is safe and viable.
And where relocation becomes unavoidable, it needs to be planned, supported and connected to opportunities for people to rebuild their lives.
Pakistan cannot prevent every flood, heatwave or instance of coastal erosion. But it can decide whether people facing these threats have the resources to adapt, the option to relocate safely and a realistic chance of rebuilding their lives.
Climate migration is not a distant prediction. It is already reshaping where Pakistanis live, work and build their futures. The question is whether the country’s planning will catch up before more people are forced to leave home.
References:
[1] In Pakistan’s Hottest City, Summers Force Half of Population to Leave, Arab News, February 9, 2022.
[2] Activists Urge Environmental Restoration Projects as Seawater Threatens Pakistan’s Indus Delta, Arab News, August 10, 2025.
[3] From Temporary Climate-Induced Displacement to Permanent Urban Settlement in Pakistan, Migration Policy Institute, June 4, 2026.
[4] Labour Force Survey 2024–25, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2025.